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Who is afraid of Donald Trump

By | on March 28, 2016 | 0 Comment

trumpThere are more than 80% chances that Donald Trump will make it to the White House. There are several reasons for my assessment. Firstly, if history is any guide, then it is the turn of the Republicans to govern America and Donald is surely going to get their nomination. Secondly, his likely opponent Hilary will be entering with a lot of  baggage, too heavy for her to win the race. Sheer incumbency factor combined with the scandals involving her personally is enough to diminish her chances of winning. Thirdly, it was too much for the American people to experiment with a black president. They are not ready to repeat the same with respect to electing a female candidate. Despite all the technological advancements, America is a conservative society and will take another decade or so to elect a woman running the show at the White House.

On the other hand, Donald has got all that is needed to win the nomination and the election. He is wealthy, got an urban macho face and personality and a battle cry which stokes the feelings of common white American. You may not like his style but the message he is conveying is very appealing to a vast majority pf the American voters-Republicans or others alike.

What type of President Donald will be? Well, we must remember two things. Firstly, the first four year-term of a President is normally spent in the dismantling the structures created by the outgoing president if he was from the opponent party. His own contributions start with the start of his second term if he is re-elected which is usually the case .So far the next four years, American foreign policy will be dictated by the path taken by Obama i.e., gradual disengagement from Middle East, friendly relations with the South American neighbors, strengthening allies in the Europe and the far East to depend more and more on themselves for their defence, bolstering India as a counterpoise to China, etc.

Secondly, no president howsoever independent minded he may be, can cross the lines drawn by the establishment which by definition is always conservative and believes in incremental approach towards long term policy. So do not expect any major deviation in the conduct of the foreign policy of USA even if he is re-elected after four years. Dictates of permanent interests of a country determine the conduct of a foreign policy, not the whims and wishes of a single individual. Full stop.

My assessment is that he will be a combination of Ronald Reagan and George Bush-a modern American version of Don Quixote. Although he will be thundering a lot before the election day but once elected, he will fall in line with the establishment which knows what are the in the best interests of USA. May be he will be able to make some cosmetic changes in the political economy of the country in the form of reduced taxation and increased welfare allocations but do not expect any major deviation. No way.

So relax and wait for the day Don Quixote finally conquers the USA

 

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